Are car sales figures still predictable?

Sales forecast for 2023

A total of 340,000 copies. RAI Association and BOVAG expect new passenger car registrations to reach this figure in 2023. If this is true, then the market is picking up slightly in 2023 compared to 2022.

Forecast light commercial vehicles in 2023

The number of new light commercial vehicles is projected to reach about 70,000 in 2023. An increase from the 67,000 new light commercial vehicles the market is likely to reach in 2022.

Expected final registrations in 2022
Passenger cars: 300.000 – 320.000
Vans: 67,000

Forecast registrations in 2023
Passenger cars: 340.000
Vans: 70,000

Where do the numbers come from?

How do these projections actually come about? “The forecasts of RAI Association and BOVAG come about after analysis of the market by the accountants of both associations and an external review,” said RAI Association.

Various factors of influence

Yet predicting these numbers also remains “wet finger work,” because more factors than ever are influencing them. The course of the war in Ukraine, for example, or the development of inflation and the local and global economy. There is also historically low consumer confidence and the energy crisis.

Running in the soup

And are you waiting from chip shortages? Although, for 2023, it seems that some of the automakers may start to catch up on their supply backlogs, as the supply of chips, parts and raw materials seems to be recovering somewhat. But then again: anything has to happen and the prognosis seems to go haywire. But for now: 340,000 new passenger cars by 2023. We will see.